imagine the failure first - 1st / 2nd / 3rd order consequences with prob weights
Decision / Thesis
Why You're Tempted (the upside story)
Pre-mortem rule: assume it's 6 months from now and this decision FAILED.
List the failure paths. For each: what's the probability (0-100), what's the cost (1-10), and what would the 2nd-order ripple be?
1st Order: Direct Failures
2nd Order: Ripples (caused by the 1st-order failures above)
3rd Order: System Effects (what this teaches future you / changes options)
Inversion Question (Charlie Munger)
Kill Criteria (what would make me stop / reverse)
Archive
client-side - localStorage only - kahneman + klein method (1989)
"if this fails 6 months from now, why?" - the question that catches what plain forecasting misses