log significant decisions w/ reasoning & predicted outcome · score later · learn what kind of decisions you screw up
Why: hindsight bias makes you remember bad decisions as obviously bad and good ones as obviously good. Pre-commit your reasoning + prediction NOW so when you score it later, you're judging your process, not your retroactive narrative.
How: log the decision + 2-3 reasons + a confidence # + what you think will happen. Wait. Score the outcome. Compare. Discover which categories you're systematically overconfident in.