🐂 BULL SCENARIO: Blockade Resolves in 2 Weeks
- Oil crashes 20-30% ($75-80 WTI)
- SPY rips to 700+ on relief rally
- Airlines/cyclicals moon (+15-20%)
- Defense gives back 5-10%
- Gold pulls back 5%
- Contrarian peace portfolio outperforms
🐻 BEAR SCENARIO: Blockade Escalates 60+ Days
- Oil to $130-150+ (demand destruction)
- SPY to 620-640 (recession fear)
- VIX to 40+ (systemic stress)
- EM defaults cascade (Pakistan first)
- Gold to $5,000+ (safe haven panic)
- Fed emergency measures possible