Scorpio Tanker Playbook — STNG Asymmetric

📝 Thesis

Quants priced the Strait of Hormuz risk premium off the 2019 Houthi cycle data. They are wrong. 2026 is not proxy theater — it is great-power escalation (Iranian ship seizure Apr 19, NK 7 missile tests, US carriers mobilized). STNG is a pure-play VLCC + product tanker operator with ~70% spot exposure. 2026 fleet utilization is already 92% and there are zero new VLCCs hitting water until 2028. Insurance premiums and rerouting compound to send spot rates from ~\$400k/day to \$1.2M+/day on any real kinetic event. That's 4-6x operating leverage vs 1.5x for the majors. Out-of-the-money July calls are still paying 8:1 skew — the market is pricing Houthi playbook, not great-power reality.

⚠️ Risk Checklist

✅ Defined risk — max loss = premium paid
✅ Liquidity — STNG options trade 500+ OI on most strikes
⚠️ Catalyst window must hit before theta melts (key: 30-45 day event-driven)
⚠️ Correlation risk — whole tanker complex (FRO, INSW, EURN) moves together
⚠️ De-escalation = rapid IV crush
🚨 If positions get filled, set profit ladder: trim 50% at 2x, trail remainder

⚓ STNG Asymmetric Playbook

📝 Thesis

⚙️ Inputs

🎬 Scenario Matrix

📉 Payoff Curve

⚠️ Risk Checklist