⚡ HORMUZ BLOCKADE STATUS
DAY 1: ACTIVE (Non-Kinetic)
▸ US Navy enforcement began ~10 AM ET Apr 13
▸ Iranian tanker Elpis defied blockade
▸ No shots fired, no naval clashes Day 1
▸ Iran losing est. $400M/day in oil revenue
▸ Freedom of navigation preserved for non-Iran traffic
ESCALATION WATCH
🔥 BREAKING SIGNALS
▸ GS Q1 profit +19% YoY, record banking & markets
▸ Asia sold off (Nikkei -1%, Kospi -2.1%)
▸ EM currencies pared losses as oil retreated
▸ Blockade enforcement = non-kinetic theater so far
▸ Market betting blockade is political, not military
▸ Day 2 key: any Iranian retaliation = VIX spike