S&P 500 (SPY)
$710.14
+4.86% weekly | ATH 7,100 on Apr 17
Divergence alert: equities UP while oil UP
Key Players & Signals
● IRGC: "Strait closed until US stops blockade"
● Trump: Warns against "blackmail"
● Ghalibaf: "Clumsy and ignorant decision"
● Burry: "Iran decisions driven by something other than FP"
● Market pros: "Load up as economy set to roar"
Hormuz Crisis Timeline — April 2026
Apr 18 (Sat)
Hormuz CLOSED AGAIN. IRGC: "Strait will remain closed until US stops blockading Iranian ports." Ships attacked. French peacekeeper killed in Lebanon.
Apr 17 (Fri)
S&P 500 hits 7,100 ATH. Dow +850pts. Oil -11% intraday after Iran briefly declared Strait open. USO -7.79%. "Most hated rally" accelerates. Market pros say "load up."
Apr 16 (Thu)
Iran declares Strait open for commercial vessels. Brief ceasefire optimism. Oil plunges. Equities surge. Nasdaq posts longest win streak since 1992.
Apr 15 (Wed)
Hormuz closure confirmed. Iran-US tensions escalate. NK missile test #7. Brent pushes toward $100. Alternative route interest surges.
Apr 14 (Tue)
US naval blockade of Iranian ports. Ghalibaf calls it "clumsy and ignorant." Equity markets rally despite risk — classic wall-of-worry behavior.
Apr 13 (Mon)
Week opens with escalation. Iran-US military posturing in the Persian Gulf. Oil spikes. Defense stocks rally.
SPY vs Oil (USO) — 5-Day Price Action
Note the inverse correlation: as oil drops, equities surge. The Apr 17 divergence (oil -7.8%, SPY +1.2%) is the most extreme single-day decoupling since the Hormuz crisis began. One of these is wrong.