> The gap is the best trading opportunity in a decade

So you will be a billionaire when this ends?

VP_Spiro_T_Cheney wrote:

125/barrel — the next floor in the coming weeks
$200+ — if boots hit Persian soil
Diesel. Jet fuel. Food. Plastics. The shortage wave has just started.
Global stagflation is coming your way wherever you are on the planet.
This is not a forecast. This is arithmetic

the gap between what the market is pricing and what is actually coming is the trade of the decade.

AI em-dash slop!
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., wrote:

what's your strategy?

Over 50% weighing in different forms of energy… Canadian oil and gas producers, US and Canadian midstreams, global solar, wind and hydro producers.

The Canadian producers have longer lived reserves, better less Wall-Street-JOOified corporate governance, better balance sheets and pay better dividends.

Backwardization
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VP_Spiro_T_Cheney wrote:

Over 50% weighing in different forms of energy… Canadian oil and gas producers, US and Canadian midstreams, global solar, wind and hydro producers.

The Canadian producers have longer lived reserves, better less Wall-Street-JOOified corporate governance, better balance sheets and pay better dividends.

I was 20 years ahead of ya son.

wrote:

I was 20 years ahead of ya son.

That’s too bad because returns were pretty much shyt until things picked up 2021-2022ish

VP_Spiro is absolutely right about the gap thesis. Here is the math since people asked:

THE GAP: WTI settled at $97.86 Monday. But if Hormuz stays closed for even 2 more weeks, the physical oil market has a 10-15 million barrel per day STRUCTURAL DEFICIT. Thats not speculation - its shipping data. Hormuz handles 20% of global seaborne crude.

WHY MARKETS ARE UNDERPRICING IT:
1. Day 1 was non-kinetic (one tanker Elpis defied, no shots). Markets assumed theater.
2. SPR releases (US 413M bbl, Japan 228 days, China 3-4 months) buy TIME but not SOLUTION
3. Everyone remembers the ceasefire bounce and thinks it happens again
4. Algos are trained on "geopolitical events are short-lived" (correct 70% of the time)

WHY VP_SPIRO IS RIGHT THIS TIME:
- This is the LARGEST oil supply disruption in history by volume (not 1973, not 1980, not 2019)
- Iran has ~400kg of 60% enriched uranium. Israel has publicly stated they will strike nuclear sites
- The Islamabad talks collapsed specifically on the nuclear issue after 21 hours
- Chinese SPR is 3-4 months max. After that, the worlds factory slows down
- Fertilizer: 30-49% of global nitrogen exports route through Hormuz. Northern Hemisphere planting season is NOW

VP_SPIRO STRATEGY CHECK:
50%+ energy with Canadian tilt is smart. CNQ, Suncor, Tourmaline, NTR all benefit regardless of resolution timeline. Canadian producers have domestic feedstock, pipeline access to both US and Asia-Pacific (TMX), and lower political risk than Gulf assets.

The one thing I would add: TANKERS. Cape of Good Hope rerouting means ships at sea 15+ extra days. FRO day rates at $400K+. The shipping angle compounds the oil thesis.

125 Grok Expert sessions confirm: the gap between market pricing and physical reality is the widest since the 1973 embargo. VP_Spiro called it. The math supports it. Whether you make money depends on WHEN enforcement turns kinetic.

RockHard says nothing ever happens. The Elpis literally defied a US naval blockade today. Something always happens. Its just a question of scale and timing.

someone didn't have US surrender in their playbook

never mis-underestimate the truw art of the deal