> GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by SummerPrevious | First | 1 | Last | Next
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PelvicOarfishGAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
The blockade turns what was already a bad situation into a nightmare for consumers:
CURRENT GAS PRICES:
- National average: $4.12-4.25/gal (up $1+ since early March)
- California: $5.89-5.92/gal (LA/SF already near $6)
- Diesel: $5.45-5.65/gal
PROJECTIONS (if blockade holds):
- $5/gallon NATIONAL by late April / mid-May
- California $7 by summer (USC Marshall modeling says $7-8.44 worst case)
- $6 national possible by Q3 in extended scenario
- $7 national would require $150-200/bbl sustained oil (unlikely but not impossible)
THE FED TRAP:
Powell is completely boxed in. Friday CPI was already 0.9% MoM / 3.3% YoY. Oil at $100+ adds another 0.8 percentage points to PCE inflation (peaking 3.8% Q2). But he can't hike - economy can't take it. Can't cut - inflation is running away. This is textbook STAGFLATION.
No rate cuts in 2026. The 7 rate cuts the market priced in January are DEAD.
THE SPR:
Only 413 million barrels (vs 714M capacity). Already doing 172M IEA release. Can sustain 1-2M bpd draws but that just buys months, not a solution.
CONSUMER IMPACT:
- $100-137 BILLION annual hit to household budgets
- $1000+ extra per household per year
- Trucking spot rates +20-28% = everything gets more expensive
- Diesel is 30-40% of trucking operating costs
POLITICAL:
$5+ gas historically kills the incumbent party. Trump approval likely dips 5-10 points. 2026 midterms just became about one thing: pump prices.
WORST HIT: California, Florida, Northeast, Deep South (AL/MS worst per capita)
BEST OFF: Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma (production/royalty boom)
95 Grok Expert sessions. 473 oracle signals. The machine sees all.
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
PAYING MORE AND GETTING LESS IS WINNING BIGLY! I LUB TWUMP SOOOO MUCH.
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Tom LeykisRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Well, there's not much you can do about it, my friend. You're not going to do a "rum running" through the Strait. (But some rum there would probably do more to solve the problem than anything).
So, have a seat. Nobody SAYS you have to take a big road trip if you can't afford it. Stay home and admire the goodness that surrounds you.
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PelvicOarfishRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Tom - you're not wrong. But the real play is to OWN the chaos, not hide from it. If you're long energy and defense stocks, you're literally profiting from the pain. Every dollar extra at the pump is revenue flowing straight into XLE holdings. FRO/DHT tanker rates at $400k/day means fat dividend checks while everyone else complains about gas prices. The rum-running analogy is actually perfect - in the 1920s the smart money was in bootlegging, not temperance. Today's equivalent: own the oil companies that benefit from every penny of this crisis. The best hedge against $5 gas is to own the infrastructure that delivers it.
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Tom LeykisRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Heekee: IMHO the best hedge from $5 a gallon gas is to own sources of solid, predictable, recurring revenue -- NOT trying to cash in from today's crisis, as you are suggesting.
Remember, plenty of people have a "get rich quick" scheme..... THAT WON'T WORK.
Just looking out for you.
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
$4.59 within 10 miles of Bartlett this morning.
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VP_Spiro_T_CheneyRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Trump needs to let Chinese EVs in so American consumers have to option to buy inexpensive very efficient well built cars.
For the price of an average big American pickup or gas hog SUV you could buy an excellent Chinese EV plus a home solar/battery system to charge it. You’d have personal energy independence for decades to come.
I don’t want to give consumers that choice.
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PelvicOarfishRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Tom - I actually agree with you on recurring revenue. Thats why the plays are DIVIDEND KINGS like XLE names and tankers (FRO yields 15%+, DHT 12%+). These arent get-rich-quick. Theyre "get-paid-while-you-wait" positions. The difference between us is you see crisis as something to weather. I see it as a window where predictable cash flow assets get mispriced because retail panics. Ship Day Rates at $400k/day ARE recurring revenue - its just that the rate reset higher. VP_Spiro has a point on Chinese EVs too. Personal energy independence is the endgame. But the bridge from here to there is years, and in those years, fossil fuel infrastructure prints money. Both can be true. $4.59 in Bartlett confirms were already past the pain threshold. $5 national by May is looking conservative now.
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Trump hedged when asked about gas prices this morning.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2043337794962301099
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Tom Leykis wrote:
Well, there's not much you can do about it, my friend.
You could be smart enough not to start wars in the region without a good plan? 
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Murphy USA in Alexandria (2052 N Mall Dr)
2052 N Mall Dr, Alexandria, Louisiana,
$2.45
Apr 12, 2026
Murphy USA in Alexandria (6201 Coliseum Blvd)
6201 Coliseum Blvd, Alexandria, Louisiana,
$2.45
Apr 12, 2026
Shell in Alexandria (4020 S McArthur Dr)
4020 S McArthur Dr, Alexandria, Louisiana,
$2.45
Apr 12, 2026
When will we hit $5 gas ?
By May or June?
2026?
2027?
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Tom LeykisRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
wrote:
You could be smart enough not to start wars in the region without a good plan?
Is your BRAIN DEAD mind personally blaming me for starting the conflict in IRAN?
JUST LIKE you personally blame ME for your SOUL CRUSHING POVERTY??
Got it. Have a taco.
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Tom LeykisRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Please note: ANYTHING that affects gasoline prices in California is defined as a SELF INFLICTED WOUND. :suicide2:
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
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HeekeeRe: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
wrote:
Trump hedged when asked about gas prices this morning.
https://x.com/Acyn/status/2043337794962301099
anyone else here still find her quite gilfy? 
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Heekee wrote:
anyone else here still find her quite gilfy?
I remember when she was still milfy!
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
Tom Leykis wrote:
...
Do you think they find it helpful to see gas is still $2.45 in some parts of the country?
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Re: GAS PRICE TRAJECTORY: $5 National by May, $7 California by Summer
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