> White House Warns Staff on Insider Trading Amid Iran War Bets

The day after President Trump announced a sudden pause of strikes against Iran last month, the White House warned staff against improperly leveraging their positions to place well-timed bets in futures markets.

The warning came in a staff-wide email from the White House Management Office on March 24, according to people familiar with the matter. The day before, Trump had announced the pause via Truth Social. About 15 minutes before the sudden shift in policy, a mysterious flurry of activity kicked off in the futures markets.

More than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes, according to Dow Jones Market Data. More recently, three accounts on Polymarket earned more than $600,000 by correctly betting on the timing of this week’s Iranian cease-fire. Critics of the president, including many Democrats, promptly inferred that someone was profiting from advance knowledge of the policy shift.

In January, an unknown trader doubled down on bets that Nicolás Maduro would soon be out as Venezuela’s leader, less than five hours before his capture. The wagers on Polymarket netted the trader more than $400,000. And in February, Israel arrested several people, including army reservists, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Israeli military operations on Polymarket.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/whi … r-3780668f