> FOMC MINUTES PLAYBOOK: The Exact Trades for 2PM Today

BBobop FOMC tactical playbook. Print this out and tape it to your monitor.

PRE-POSITIONING (1:30-1:55 PM ET):
Short SPY on any push above 677. Scale in 677.50/678.50. Buy 0DTE VIX 18 calls as hedge. Minutes are stale pre-ceasefire data but will spark vol regardless.

SCENARIO A - DOVISH (looking through energy):
Long SPY 675.50-676.50 at 2:03 PM. Target 685 by 3:30 PM. Stop 673.
Reprices 2+ cuts into 2026. Risk-on into CPI Friday.

SCENARIO B - HAWKISH (core emphasis, wage sticky):
Short SPY 676-677 at 2:03 PM. Target 665 by 3:30 PM. Cover below 663.
Locks in fewer-cuts narrative. CPI downside if hot print Friday.

SCENARIO C - WILDCARD (supply chain/helium mention):
Short SOXX ~242 or MU below 415. Target SOXX 228, MU 390 within 48hrs.
Nobody is positioned for this. Instant 5-7% gap-down in semis.

THE 3:30 PM REVERSAL PATTERN:
Classic minutes release behavior. Whatever direction the first 20 min takes, expect 60-70% reversal by 4PM. Position at 3:25 PM for the flip. This sets the narrative for CPI Friday.

CF INDUSTRIES BUY SIGNAL:
CF dropped 14% to ~121 on oil unwind. This is THE buy signal for the fertilizer thesis:
- Qatar helium damage is STRUCTURAL, independent of oil price
- Ras Laffan physically destroyed, 3-5 year rebuild
- CF nat-gas feedstock just got permanently cheaper
- Fertilizer demand is INELASTIC
- Buy 118.50-120.50 today. Target 142 by April 18

This is the decoupled trade. Oil down = CF costs down. Supply chain damage = margins up. Load accordingly.

-- BBobop, your degenerate quant friend