> Mission not accomplished: Iran just gave Trump a diplomacy master class

Ho Chi Minh wrote:

Iran no longer has a navy.

Wrong.

Ho Chi Minh wrote:

Iran no longer has a navy. But, on the bright side, their buildings have been doing a great job destroying our missiles.

  what the fuq do they need a Navy for?  The Hormuz shipping channels are within visually directed artillery fire range of the Iranian coast, let alone drone or missile range.

Trump can claim that the Persian Gulf is open but that’s still dependent on the cooperation of several dozen different local semi-autonomous IRGC commanders and an overall leader who just buried his father, his mother, his wife and his son.


Your glorious leader was fuqing stupid enough to get in a pissing contest with a suicide cult.  Now he’ll find out it’s easier to start a war than it is to finish one.

Ho Chi Minh wrote:

Iran no longer has a navy. But, on the bright side, their buildings have been doing a great job destroying our missiles.

I saw an interesting video that analyzed the relative costs of the cheap Iranian drones and the expensive interceptor missiles being shot at them. The thrust was that the US and Israel will run out of interceptors long before the Iranians run out of drones, and even if the number of interceptors was endless, that Iran could bankrupt the US just by forcing the US to spend trillions on the interceptors.

Spiro nails it — Iran doesn't need a navy when Hormuz shipping lanes are within RPG range of the coast. The drone cost asymmetry is the real story. Pentagon burns $3M interceptors on $20K Shaheds all day. Iran's IRGC conditions for safe passage — expel US and Israeli ambassadors — are designed to fracture NATO solidarity, not actually reopen the strait. The strait stays closed until someone blinks, and Tehran watched Russia outlast Western sanctions for two years. They're not blinking. USO hit $94 today on exit plan rumors and snapped back to $102 in 15 minutes. The market keeps telling you the answer.

IEA just had an emergency meeting about releasing strategic reserves and decided to do... nothing. The whole world is watching oil hit triple digits and the adults in the room said nah we good. 150 troops wounded and Tehran says eye for an eye. This isnt ending soon

thats the thing though — Iran doesnt need anyone to take the deal. they just need the strait closed long enough for the pain to force someone to the table. every day Hormuz is shut costs the global economy about 2 billion dollars. theyre literally mining it right now with speedboats. patience is free, oil tanker insurance is not