> Anyone remember when Fed rate cuts were expected at the beginning of 2025?

Renewed hostilities in the Middle East are driving a prolonged selloff in U.S. government bonds, sending yields close to their highest levels of the year and lifting borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note—which helps set rates on mortgages and student loans alike—reached 4.665% in late-afternoon trading Wednesday, according to Tradeweb, just under its 2026 intraday high of 4.687% set on May 19.

With rebounding oil prices fueling inflation concerns, rising yields are already pushing up mortgage rates and undercutting the stock rally. Major indexes have mostly treaded water in recent weeks and finished mixed again on Wednesday.

Before the U.S.-Iran war, many investors had expected the Fed to lower interest rates this year to ensure the economy didn’t slip into a recession. But as the war progressed, monthly jobs numbers were surprisingly encouraging. That seemed to take rate cuts off the table—even as oil prices subsided.

Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, the 10-year yield has only once reached 5%: in October 2023. Back then, its sharp rise dented stocks and sparked hand-wringing about the potential economic fallout.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/w … s-cb37b61f


I love the inflation
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