> Even if you have $1 billion, that's only 0.1% of Elon Musk's net worth.

This is before he became a trillionaire:

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wrote:

Be interesting to see how big a loan you could get with $100B worth of restricted SpaceX stock as collateral.

I’m guessing no more than $10B, though that’s still a better collateral to loan ratio than you could get with Anthropic or OpenAI.

Anthropic is profitable, while SpaceX & OpenAI are not.

wrote:

Be interesting to see how big a loan you could get with $100B worth of restricted SpaceX stock as collateral.

I’m guessing no more than $10B, though that’s still a better collateral to loan ratio than you could get with Anthropic or OpenAI.

With $100B in restricted SpaceX stock as collateral, you’re looking at a very real but highly bespoke financing opportunity in the $25B–$50B+ range, depending on structure, timing, and the lender. This isn’t a standard margin loan from your broker—it’s in the realm of private securities-backed lending (SBLOCs), founder liquidity facilities, or structured “private margin loans” that have become more common for concentrated, illiquid, or restricted holdings. 
Current Context (June 2026)
SpaceX IPO’d just days ago (June 12) at $135/share with a ~$1.75–1.8T valuation, quickly trading up toward $150–164 and pushing the market cap over $2T. Elon Musk’s stake alone helped push his net worth past $1T. 
“Restricted” here means shares still subject to lockups or transfer limits (Rule 144, shareholder agreements, etc.), not freely tradable in size. SpaceX used a staggered/phased lockup rather than a hard 180-day cliff:
•  Many pre-IPO/insider shares get partial releases starting after Q2 earnings (late July/early August): up to 20% + potential extra 10% if the stock holds >30% above IPO price.
•  Then staged 7% tranches at 70/90/105/120/135 days, with more after Q3 earnings and full release around 180 days (December 2026).
•  Elon himself has a stricter 366-day lockup with no early releases. 
A $100B position (roughly 5% of the company at current levels) is Elon-scale territory. Lenders treat this as concentrated large-cap exposure with temporary illiquidity overlays.
What Drives the Loan Size (LTV)
Lenders care about exit risk on default more than headline valuation. Key factors:
•  Liquidity & restrictions: Staged unlocks starting in weeks help (better than pure pre-IPO). Long-lockup shares (Musk-style) get bigger haircuts.
•  Concentration: Single-name risk is real—even in a $2T+ company, dumping tens of billions worth moves the market. Lenders often cap any one position at 20–30% of total collateral and apply “concentration taxes.”
•  Valuation certainty: Recent IPO price provides a mark, but they’ll apply discounts, averages, or ongoing marks. Volatility (space/tech/Musk factor) matters.
•  Structure & borrower profile: Recourse vs. non-recourse, margin call mechanics, term length, other collateral/guarantees, hedging (collars), and your overall relationship/credit.
•  Lender type: Traditional banks are conservative. Specialist private banks, arrangers, or structured credit desks go further for UHNW/founder clients. 
Typical LTV ranges (drawn from securities-backed and private share lending practices):
•  Fully liquid, diversified public equities: 55–75%+.
•  Concentrated single large-cap public stock: 40–55% initial (maintenance often lower, e.g., 25–40%).
•  Restricted/lockup or recently public with staged releases: 25–45% (higher end if unlocks are imminent and conditions favorable).
•  Pure pre-IPO/private/venture-backed: Often 15–40%, sometimes lower. 
For your $100B restricted SpaceX position:
•  Conservative/standard bank deal: 25–35% LTV → $25B–$35B loan. Heavy haircuts for size, single-name risk, and any remaining restrictions.
•  Realistic bespoke facility (specialist lender, staged unlocks factored in, strong covenants/relationship): 35–45% LTV → $35B–$45B.
•  Aggressive/structured (partial hedge/collar to cap downside, other assets pledged, syndication, non-recourse elements): 45–55%+ effective → $45B–$55B+ possible, though rare at this absolute scale without multiple lenders.
At $100B collateral size, expect syndication or a club deal—no single institution wants that much single-name exposure. Deals often route through SPVs, with strict ongoing LTV maintenance, valuation reporting, and cure periods.
Real-World Parallels
Elon has done exactly this kind of thing:
•  Borrowed internally from SpaceX itself ($100M up to $1B at one point) secured by his SpaceX shares, sometimes at very low rates (1–3%). These were insider-friendly terms. 
•  Pledged hundreds of millions to billions in Tesla shares externally for personal loans (Tesla imposed its own caps, like 25% of value or hard dollar limits in some policies).
•  Broader market: Founders and UHNWIs increasingly use private margin/SBLOC-style facilities or “back-levering” against concentrated private/public holdings to diversify, fund other bets, or bridge without selling. LTVs are deliberately conservative because realizing collateral is painful. 
Other Practicalities
•  Interest & terms: Expect SOFR + spread (or fixed equivalent), probably in the 4–8%+ range depending on risk and structure—higher than plain diversified SBLOCs. Interest-only or hybrid repayment common, aligned with unlock windows. Fees, legal, custody, and ongoing monitoring add up.
•  Risks to you: Margin calls if SPCX drops (especially around unlock windows or volatility spikes). Lender enforcement rights (they’ll want clean pledge/ control agreements; shareholder agreements and company consents can complicate). Opportunity cost if the stock moons while you’re paying interest.
•  Benefits: No immediate cap gains tax, retain upside and (depending on share class) voting/control, access capital for asymmetric bets, real estate, diversification, or whatever without diluting your SpaceX position. Classic “keep the crown jewels, monetize a slice” move.
•  Taxes & regs: Securities lending has nuances (Reg U margin rules for certain loans, etc.). Proper structuring matters.
Bottom line: A sophisticated borrower with $100B restricted SpaceX collateral could realistically access $30B–$45B (maybe stretching higher with creative structuring) from the right private bank or specialist desk. It’s not trivial—expect serious underwriting, legal work, and conservative buffers—but it’s doable in today’s market for this asset class. The staggered lockups actually help compared to a hard cliff.
This kind of facility is exactly why concentrated wealth doesn’t have to stay fully illiquid forever. It turns “paper” (or semi-paper) holdings into deployable capital while keeping skin in the game. Just don’t ignore the margin maintenance math during those first unlock tranches.