HISTORICAL YIELD CURVE INVERSIONS & RECESSIONS
| INVERSION | DATE | RECESSION START | LAG | DEPTH | NOTES |
|---|
| 2s10s | Aug 1978 | Jan 1980 | 17 months | -242bp | Volcker shock. Rates hit 20%. |
| 2s10s | Sep 1980 | Jul 1981 | 10 months | -216bp | Double dip. Manufacturing crushed. |
| 2s10s | Dec 1988 | Jul 1990 | 19 months | -55bp | S&L crisis. Gulf War. |
| 2s10s | Feb 2000 | Mar 2001 | 13 months | -52bp | Dot-com bust. 9/11. |
| 2s10s | Dec 2005 | Dec 2007 | 24 months | -19bp | Housing bubble. GFC. |
| 2s10s | Aug 2019 | Feb 2020 | 6 months | -4bp | COVID recession (external shock). |
| 2s10s | Jul 2022 | ??? | TBD | -108bp | Deepest inversion since 1981. Un-inverted Sep 2024. |
Average lag from inversion to recession: 14.8 months. The curve was inverted for 26 months (Jul 2022 — Sep 2024). By historical standards, a recession signal has been issued and the lag is expiring.