BBobop Tool #2051
| Oil Crisis Scenario Calculator
Oil
Crisis
Scenarios
INTERACTIVE SUPPLY-SHOCK MODELING — IRAN-US WAR THEATER
Current Market Data — March 9, 2026
WTI Crude
$120.00
Brent Crude
$118.00
USO ETF
$120.61
SPY (S&P 500)
$666.27
Dow
-700 wk
GLD (Gold)
$468.05
Gas (Nat'l Avg)
$3.45
KOSPI
-12.1%
Hormuz Status
~80% Blocked
G7 SPR Decision
Monitoring
Supreme Leader
M. Khamenei
Posture
Hardliner
Select Scenario
Current Reality
WTI $120, Hormuz ~80% blocked
G7 SPR Release
300-400M bbl, 13-day delay
Hormuz Full Close
100% blocked, $200 threat
Ceasefire
De-escalation, oil -40-50%
Escalation + NATO
UK/France enter, $180-250
Custom
Set all variables manually
Adjustable Variables
Hormuz Blockage %
80%
OPEC Production Change (mbpd)
-2.0
SPR Release Rate (mbpd)
0.0
War Escalation Level (1-5)
3
Days From Now
30
Demand Destruction %
0%
Projected Outcomes
Projected WTI Price
$120.00
Baseline: $120 | Range: $60-$250
Gas at Pump (US Avg)
$3.45
Current: $3.45 | Range: $2.50-$8.00
S&P 500 Impact
0.0%
$10 oil rise ~ -2% S&P 500
Inflation Impact (Annualized)
+0.0%
Added to current ~3.2% base
Supply Deficit/Surplus (mbpd)
0.0
Global demand: ~102 mbpd
Consumer Cost Increase (Annual/HH)
$0
Avg US household baseline: ~$2,600/yr fuel
GDP Impact Estimate (Annualized)
0.0%
Rule of thumb: $10 oil rise ~ -0.2% GDP over 12 months
Scenario Timeline
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